Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Both writes two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there might be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has has important lessons to gain from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to join the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
